Tap Selections: Affliction, UFC, & Dream


Andrei Arlovski. Photo by Esther Lin/CombatLifestyle.com.

Here are our predictions for each of the big-time shows that are going on this weekend. (Affliction: Banned, UFC Fight Night 14, and DREAM.5) Below you can find our thoughts on the winners and methods of victory as well as analysis on each of the show’s main events. Our records to date are included as well. Also, here’s an unofficial introduction to our newest staff member, Martin Alexander, as this is his first time predicting events.


Affliction: Banned


Jamie Fitzgerald (41-17)

Main Event: While it’s been some time since Fedor has faced a decent opponent, I’m confident he hasn’t lost a step. Tim will once again use his reach, but unlike the Nogueira fight where he dominated for two rounds, Sylvia will struggle with Fedor’s quickness. Emelianenko will have a few marks on his face, but he’ll catch Tim with an armbar in the 2nd round.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Tim Sylvia (Armbar, R2)
Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell (KO, R1)
Josh Barnett vs. Pedro Rizzo (Kimura, R2)
Matt Lindland vs. Fabio Negao (Decision)
Renato Sobral vs. Mike Whitehead (Anaconda Choke, R2)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Edwin Dewees (TKO, R1)
Vitor Belfort vs. Terry Martin (KO, R2)
Gary Goodridge vs. Paul Buentello (KO, R1)
Savant Young vs. Mark Hominick (Decision)
Mike Pyle vs. J.J. Ambrose (TKO, R1)
Justin Levens vs. Ray Lizama (TKO, R2)

Martin Alexander (0-0)

Main Event: I’m going to choose the underdog in this bout because I feel if Fedor cannot finish Sylvia by submission in the earlier rounds, he may gas and Sylvia may take advantage and get the upset. This fight could go the distance if Fedor is unable to submit Sylvia and it may go to a decision. I’m still picking Sylvia with the upset.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Tim Sylvia (TKO, R3)
Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell (TKO, R2)
Josh Barnett vs. Pedro Rizzo (Guillotine, R2)
Matt Lindland vs. Fabio Negao (RNC, R2)
Renato Sobral vs. Mike Whitehead (Triangle, R1)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Edwin Dewees (TKO, R2)
Vitor Belfort vs. Terry Martin (TKO, R1)
Gary Goodridge vs. Paul Buentello (TKO, R1)
Savant Young vs. Mark Hominick (Armbar, R2)
Mike Pyle vs. J.J. Ambrose (Triangle, R2)
Justin Levens vs. Ray Lizama (TKO, R1)

David Singer (37-21)

Main Event: Tim Sylvia has a chance.  Fedor Emelianenko does have a shot at losing.  I can’t remember the last time I had that thought.  That being said, I still don’t think it’s going to happen.  Fedor has fought enough big men to know what to do with them and Sylvia’s going to get frustrated and make a mistake at some point.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Tim Sylvia (Armbar, R2)
Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell (TKO, R1)
Josh Barnett vs. Pedro Rizzo (Armbar, R1)
Matt Lindland vs. Fabio Negao (TKO, R1)
Renato Sobral vs. Mike Whitehead (TKO, R1)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Edwin Dewees (TKO, R2)
Vitor Belfort vs. Terry Martin (TKO, R1)
Gary Goodridge vs. Paul Buentello (TKO, R1)
Savant Young vs. Mark Hominick (Armbar, R1)
Mike Pyle vs. J.J. Ambrose (RNC, R1)
Justin Levens vs. Ray Lizama (TKO, R1)

John Chandler (201-93)

Main Event: I don’t think Sylvia should be that much of an underdog going into this fight. Sure, he’s lost his last two fights, but they’ve also been losses to two of the current top three best heavyweights in the world. On top of that, we all know that Fedor hasn’t fought the toughest guys in recent years. I think Sylvia will give Fedor a run for his money but I can’t see him winning this fight. Eventually this fight will hit the ground and even though Sylvia has decent submission defense, Fedor will catch him in something.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Tim Sylvia (Armbar, R2)
Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell (TKO, R2)
Josh Barnett vs. Pedro Rizzo (Kimura, R1)
Matt Lindland vs. Fabio Negao (TKO, R1)
Renato Sobral vs. Mike Whitehead (Heel Hook, R2)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Edwin Dewees (RNC, R2)
Vitor Belfort vs. Terry Martin (KO, R1)
Gary Goodridge vs. Paul Buentello (TKO, R1)
Savant Young vs. Mark Hominick (Decision)
Mike Pyle vs. J.J. Ambrose (RNC, R2)
Justin Levens vs. Ray Lizama (Decision)


UFC Fight Night 14


Jamie Fitzgerald

Main Event: It’s hard not to give Irvin a puncher’s chance in this fight. He’s got knockout power and maybe it takes one quick punch to taint Anderson’s God-like status. I think Irvin will find out quickly that life in the clinch is hell and Silva proves that he can hang with the big boys.

Anderson Silva vs. James Irvin (TKO, R1)
Hermes Franca vs. Frank Edgar (Decision)
Brandon Vera vs. Reese Andy (TKO, R2)
Anthony Johnson vs. Kevin Burns (KO, R1)
Jesse Taylor vs. C.B. Dollaway (Decision)
Cain Velasquez vs. Jake O’Brien (TKO, R2, 4:17)
Brad Blackburn vs. James Giboo (TKO, R2)
Rory Markham vs. Brodie Farber (TKO, R1)
Dale Hartt vs. Shannon Gugerty (RNC, R2)
Nate Loughran vs. Johnny Rees (Guillotine, R2)
Tim Credeur vs. Cale Yarborough (Armbar, R1)

Martin Alexander

Main Event: 1st round is either going to be short and sweet or it’s going to be a round where each fighter takes a slow pace. Silva will test Irvin’s standup skills, I don’t think he will look for a take down. Irvin will most likely come out aggressive so the fight could end quick either way. I think Irvin has a puncher’s chance to beat Silva even though 9.5 times out of 10 Silva destroys Irvin. No matter what someone is going to sleep in this fight.

Anderson Silva vs. James Irvin (KO, R1)
Hermes Franca vs. Frank Edgar (Decision)
Brandon Vera vs. Reese Andy (TKO, R2)
Anthony Johnson vs. Kevin Burns (KO, R1)
Jesse Taylor vs. C.B. Dollaway (Decision)
Cain Velasquez vs. Jake O’Brien (TKO, R2)
Brad Blackburn vs. James Giboo (TKO, R1)
Rory Markham vs. Brodie Farber (TKO, R2)
Dale Hartt vs. Shannon Gugerty (TKO, R3)
Nate Loughran vs. Johnny Rees (Triangle, R2)
Tim Credeur vs. Cale Yarborough (RNC, R1)

David Singer

Anderson Silva vs. James Irvin (TKO, R2)
Hermes Franca vs. Frank Edgar (Decision)
Brandon Vera vs. Reese Andy (TKO, R2)
Anthony Johnson vs. Kevin Burns (TKO, R1)
Jesse Taylor vs. C.B. Dollaway (RNC, R2)
Cain Velasquez vs. Jake O’Brien (TKO, R1)
Brad Blackburn vs. James Giboo (TKO, R1)
Rory Markham vs. Brodie Farber (TKO, R1)
Dale Hartt vs. Shannon Gugerty (TKO, R1)
Nate Loughran vs. Johnny Rees (Armbar, R1)
Tim Credeur vs. Cale Yarborough (RNC, R1)

John Chandler

Main Event: Irvin has been 100% correct in his pre-fight comments regarding his fight against Silva so far. Silva is better than him in all aspects, so taking time to come up with any sort of strategy would essentially be a waste. However, in my opinion, not having a strategy at all is exactly what gives Irvin a chance in this fight. The element of unpredictability may be exactly what is needed to dethrone Silva at this point. Instead of trying to beat him in a calculated fashion, why not throw everything to the wind and just go for it? It’ll be the first time in a long time that someone has done that to him, thus why I’m taking Irvin in this one.

Anderson Silva vs. James Irvin (TKO, R2)
Hermes Franca vs. Frank Edgar (Armbar, R3)
Brandon Vera vs. Reese Andy (TKO, R1)
Anthony Johnson vs. Kevin Burns (KO, R1)
Jesse Taylor vs. C.B. Dollaway (Decision)
Cain Velasquez vs. Jake O’Brien (TKO, R2)
Brad Blackburn vs. James Giboo (TKO, R1)
Rory Markham vs. Brodie Farber (TKO, R1)
Dale Hartt vs. Shannon Gugerty (TKO, R2)
Nate Loughran vs. Johnny Rees (RNC, R2)
Tim Credeur vs. Cale Yarborough (Triangle, R1)


DREAM.5


Jamie Fitzgerald

Lightweight GP: Aoki’s just on another level right now. He’ll put enough offense to get past Uno, but won’t be able to finish him; Caol hasn’t been submitted in over a decade. In the final against Alvarez, the bout should look a lot like his match against JZ. Aoki will be too much to handle while in the guard and he’ll finish Alvarez with a new submission I’m already dubbing as the OMGoplata.

Mark Hunt vs. Alistair Overeem (TKO, R2)
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Katsuyori Shibata (KO, R1)
Motoki Miyazawa vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka (Decision)
Joachim Hansen vs. Kultar Gill (RNC, R2)
Shinya Aoki vs. Caol Uno (Decision)
Eddie Alvarez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (Decision)
Shinya Aoki vs. Eddie Alvarez (OMGoplata, R2)

John Chandler

Lightweight GP: I’m going with Alvarez to take the cake in this lightweight tournament. He should be able to offset Kawajiri’s wrestling en route to an unanimous decision win in the semi-finals. Eddie’s biggest threat is obviously grappling wizard Shinya Aoki, who is the heavy favorite to win the tournament. Aoki is severely one-dimensional as we all know. While one would think that Aoki would quickly submit Alvarez if the fight hit the ground, Alvarez has shown that he has above-average submission defense in the past. He’s much more well-rounded than Aoki and should be able to give him fits anywhere else the fight goes.

Mark Hunt vs. Alistair Overeem (TKO, R1)
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Katsuyori Shibata (KO, R1)
Motoki Miyazawa vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka (Decision)
Joachim Hansen vs. Kultar Gill (TKO, R1)
Shinya Aoki vs. Caol Uno (Triangle, R1)
Eddie Alvarez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (Decision)
Shinya Aoki vs. Eddie Alvarez (Decision)

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